A mere eight weeks in the past when the young forward was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while the Villa manager admonished him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. At that point, as Villa failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were a sign or the source for the side's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, however, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. After Rogers curled home his second strike to restore the lead for Villa, Emery discarded his winter coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club marched on to a 10th successive win and having failed to win their initial half-dozen matches, are somehow only three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Serious Challengers?
It remains an exceptionally difficult question to resolve. The historical record, the perceived status of the club, indicates otherwise. Additionally, their performances haven't been completely commanding this season, while the wins have stacked up.
According to the data, twice all season has the side registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than their opponents. For a club who have put together ten consecutive victories, Villa seem curiously susceptible – but currently the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic appears to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent and wait for their star man to rescue them with some precise efforts. This occurred against Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and again versus United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from an exquisite effort, curled right inside the goal frame from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of his first as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opposition had more efforts and more efforts on goal. The team has secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the most significant challenge the club must confront over the coming weeks. The forward, surely, cannot keep on drilling the ball past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is another reality whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures could still return to peak condition.
- Ollie Watkins could start scoring again.
- The winger may rediscover the force he showed during his peak.
- The defensive duo will eventually return from injury, bolstering a periodically leaky defence.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a title challenge, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this is a surprise. Nobody thought Aston Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt back in October, no one envisioned the young forward as the year closed would be spearheading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a vital player for the national team.
The current run must be cherished precisely because it seems so surreal. As the hero positioned himself before the North End at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. Such periods are rare in football and must be appreciated.
